It is often said that the worst democracy is far better than the best dictatorship.
One does not have to look farther than the northern border of Nigeria to a country with which it shares its longest land border, to confirm this truism.
Since the government of President Mohammed Bazoum was toppled in a military coup led by Gen. Abdourahamane Tchiani in July 2023, the country has seen a significant deterioration in both economic and security conditions.
This is in spite of initial claims by the coup leaders that they forcefully took over power to improve the country’s lot.
International relations experts say, in spite of what the military would have the outside world believe, Niger’s economy has been severely impacted by the military takeover.
The junta’s actions, including cutting ties with key international partners, have led to economic isolation.
Sanctions imposed by ECOWAS, led by Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu and other international actors, have compounded these issues, resulting in higher prices of basic goods and widespread economic hardship among the population.
The closure of borders and the cessation of aid have also hit the country hard, with many people struggling to afford necessities like food, according to international donor agencies.
A recent African Development Bank (AfDB) report suggests that economic activities slowed down to 2.5 per cent in 2023.
This is as the political regime changed and economic and financial sanctions were imposed by ECOWAS and the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAeMU).
The freezing of external funding by the country’s main technical and financial partners has also taken a heavy toll on its economy.
AfDB, quoting the National Institute of Statistics, said sanctions increased the estimated incidence of poverty by 1.9 percentage points to 43.9 per cent at the end of 2023.
AfDB also reported that food insecurity and the precarious health situation before the political change have worsened.
The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reported a surge in humanitarian needs in Niger after the coup.
OCHA said an additional 600,000 people required humanitarian assistance in 2023, to an estimated total of some 4.3 million people. It projected that extreme poverty is expected to reach 52 per cent.
But Tchiani and his cohorts would rather make their capture look like a populist military government.
In terms of security, the situation has not improved under the junta.
Niger, which previously managed to keep insurgency and militant activities at bay under former President Bazoum, is now facing increased instability.
Just like in the economic situation, the junta’s strained relations with former security partners, such as France and the U.S., have led to the withdrawal of foreign troops and support.
The situation has left the country more vulnerable to violent extremism and the activities of militants.
In spite faring comparatively better against Burkina Faso and Mali in terms of fatalities, Niger is still suffering from violence and internal turmoil, with over 370,000 internally displaced people, primarily consisting of women and children.
This insecurity has only worsened the living conditions for many Nigeriens, who are now caught between economic hardship and rising violence.
“One key rationale the military provided for the taking power last year was the worsening security in the country.
“However, violence has persisted and escalated, calling into question the effectiveness of military operations.
“Oversight of military spending has also been curtailed,” Transparency International Defence and Security said in a report published on Aug. 8, 2024.
According to Human Rights Watch’s World Report 2024, since the coup, freedom of expression has been curtailed and independent journalists have faced arrests, threats, and harassment.
Political space shrank, with the junta banning the activities of all political parties and arresting several members of the ousted government and its supporters.
Niger has also continued to battle armed groups, including the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) and the rival Al-Qaeda-linked Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wa al-Muslimeen, JNIM).
Also, Boko Haram and the Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP) are very active in its western and southeastern regions.
After the coup, supporters of the military government also referred to as the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland (Conseil national pour la sauvegarde de la patrie, CNSP) organised vigilante committees.
The group has reportedly committed several acts of violence against members of Bazoum’s party, the Nigerien Party for Democracy and Socialism (Parti Nigérien pour la Démocratie et le Socialisme, PNDS-Tarayya).
CNSP supporters are believed to have perpetrated the violence as a result of political tensions over a possible ECOWAS military intervention.
Human Rights Watch documented specific situations where supporters of the junta ransacked and set fire to the PNDS headquarters in the capital, Niamey.
They also reportedly burnt scores of vehicles and physically assaulted several PNDS members who had gathered at the party’s headquarters for a meeting.
The security forces did not take adequate measures to prevent the violence.
According to reports, youth vigilantes supporting the CNSP also sexually assaulted several women during unlawful patrols at Niamey’s main roundabouts.
According to the police and the Nigerien League for Women’s Rights, at least four of the victims filed complaints with the Nigerien police against their abusers.
However, none of the perpetrators has been charged with those offenses.
Evidence suggests that General Tchiani and his government have resorted to propaganda to maintain their grip on power.
The junta has restricted media freedom, arrested journalists, and cracked down on dissent, which are common tactics used by regimes under pressure.
This crackdown on free speech and the manipulation of information indicates a government that is increasingly desperate to control the narrative and suppress any opposition.
Typical of a dictatorship, the junta has restricted freedom of expression and shut down media. Local and international journalists have been physically attacked, threatened, verbally harassed, and harassed online.
The CNSP indefinitely suspended local retransmissions of international news broadcasters Radio France Internationale (RFI) and France 24, violating the right to free and independent information.
The blocking created an information gap, as local media outlets lost access to reliable and independent international news sources.
People have been arrested for accusations as flimsy as “production and dissemination of data likely to disturb public order” under the military regime.
Evidence also suggests that the country’s level of corruption has surged under the military.
Transparency International believes that the adopted Ordinance 2024-05 of February 23, 2024, is a huge step backward in terms of good governance in the security sector.
It said the ordinance allows for even more opaque practices in defence budget planning and management.
“The new decree dictates that public procurement and public accounting expenses related to the acquisition of equipment, materials, and supplies, as well as the performance of works or services intended for the Defense and Security Forces (FDS) are exempt from regular oversight regulations.
“Moreover, defence expenses are exempt from taxes, duties, and fees during the transition period. Unfortunately, opaque practices have become the norm when it comes to Niger’s defence governance.”
An analysis of media content strongly reveals that the situation in Niger has worsened since the junta took power, both economically and in terms of security.
Gen. Tchiani’s government only appears to be using propaganda to mask its failures, but the deteriorating conditions suggest that these efforts may not be sustainable in the long term.
As researcher Denitsa Zhelyazkova wrote, “Turning away from democracy rarely leads to peace and stability.” Niger presents a classic case in point.
