By Stanley Ebube
In the build-up to the 2023 general elections, there were agitations within the major political parties about whether the Office of the President should be retained in the northern part of the country or should return to the southern part in a rotational consensus.
Within the ruling All Progressives Party (APC) whose then President Muhammadu Buhari from the north was just rounding up his two terms of eight years as president, the issue of where power should reside next generated some heated debates.
Those of northern extraction who were hoping to succeed Buhari felt that the party should throw open the contest and let the candidate with the highest votes win, regardless of where they were from.
On the other hand, candidates from the South were quick to remind the party that the rotation of political offices has been the bedrock of Nigeria’s democracy since 1999 and the status quo should be maintained.
However, there was a rather odd but loud voice from the beginning; a northerner who unequivocally supported Southern candidates and insisted that the presidency should be zoned to the South. It was the voice of the then Kaduna State Governor, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai.
The former Minister of the Federal Capital Territory not only backed the idea of power returning to the South, he fought tooth and nail to ensure that one emerged.
El-Rufai himself said in an interview that, at a meeting with Buhari concerning the matter, five names were submitted as potential candidates from the South, one of whom should fly the party’s flag during the presidential election.
Of course, President Bola Tinubu was on that list and El-Rufai was his biggest cheerleader and defender before and after the APC primaries, where the former Lagos State governor eventually emerged as the party’s presidential candidate.
He defended Tinubu when he had to and launched media and personal attacks on his behalf when the need arose. And the need arose many times, including during the naira redesign saga which pitted Tinubu against the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) governor, Godwin Emefiele. A known offensive player, El-Rufai has a seamless way of turning defence into attack and gaining popular support while at it. It was that exceptional talent that earned Tinubu some sympathy and Buhari/Emefiele some stick when Nigerians suffered untold hardship due to that CBN naira redesign policy.
But critics were quick to point out that El-Rufai did much less than he would like to take credit for. First, although he supported a southern candidate, that candidate was not initially Tinubu but former Transport Minister, Rotimi Amaechi. They said in his typical deceptive manner, he only gravitated towards Tinubu’s camp when it became obvious where the party’s ticket was heading.
To those people, former Kano State governor, Abdullahi Ganduje, Vice President Ibrahim Shettima, former Plateau State governor Simon Lalong and others invested more and much earlier in Tinubu’s candidacy than El-Rufai, whom they see as a mere show stealer.
What’s more, they asked, El-Rufai could not even deliver Kaduna, as the Peoples Democratic Party candidate, Atiku Abubakar, swept the state by 554,360 votes to APC’s 399,293! PDP also cleared all three Kaduna senatorial seats and won 10 seats out of a total of 16 seats for the House of Representatives in the state. Insiders blamed El-Rufai’s highhandedness for the bad showing of his party and if the results did not humble the former governor, it very much demystified him.
All the same, it came as a surprise when the Nigerian Senate failed to confirm the nomination of El-Rufai as a ministerial nominee, along with two others – Senator Abubakar Danladi of Taraba State and Stella Okotete of Delta State.
President of the Senate, Senator Godswill Akpabio, said the Senate did not clear El-Rufai and co because of security reports that must be cleared. And that was where surprise quickly turned into curiosity. How did El-Rufai move from being the star and poster boy of the Tinubu army to becoming a liability requiring extra security checks?
While accusing fingers have been pointed and names flying around as responsible for Mallam’s tribulation, what onlookers can only do is speculate. However, analysis of media content since El-Rufai’s new status as an unwanted fellow was activated suggests that, although he is a victim of a high-voltage powerplay, his own antecedents could have played a bigger role in his misfortune.
Indeed, the jury is still out on whether he could somehow prevail over his trial, El-Rufai is already easing his pains by withdrawing his ministerial nomination. After all, he is on record to have said he was not interested in any appointment after his term as governor. His withdrawal could play into that narrative; classic El-Rufai!
Whatever the case may be, the summary of El-Rufai’s rejection is that of someone who is haunted by his past and who is dealing with people who are suspicious of what he is capable of in the future.
There is no gainsaying that El-Rufai switches allegiance and loyalty as and when it suits him. In politics, that could be seen as a betrayal by those he switches against. Ask his former boss, Olusegun Obasanjo, and he would almost definitely have something to say about El-Rufai’s loyalty or a lack of it. Even Buhari could chip in one or two unfriendly descriptions of the man who many feel was responsible for the frosty relationship between the former president and his successor.
Many could even argue that Tinubu himself had been a victim of El-Rufai’s betrayal, thus cannot completely trust him but only welcomed him into his camp because of what he brought to the table at that time.
Premium Times, quoting impeccable sources, reported that: “Allegations of human rights abuses, unguarded public utterances, and a purported flood of petitions are the issues advanced by the State Security Service (SSS) against the nomination of former Governor Nasir El-Rufai of Kaduna State.”
Truth be told, El-Rufai has a penchant for unguarded public utterances and it could be his greatest undoing. The most recent installment of his careless speeches came while addressing a group of Muslim clerics in Kaduna after his party was declared the winner of the governorship election in March.
“Asiwaju got the ticket and when he got it, we knew he would have no option but to pick a Muslim as his vice; if not, he would lose the election… What we are able to achieve in Kaduna, we’ve now achieved on the national level. There is no liar that can say he will do politics of Christianity and win the election. Peter Obi tried it but this is where he is now. We’ve brought an end to that. They’ve kept quiet. Ever since Asiwaju emerged, CAN has remained mute… If we do it again and again everything will be normal. To God, that was what we did.”
Add that to the famous “body bag” and “whoever kills a Fulani man” statements made on separate occasions and one would have a compendium of dangerous incitement and a threat to national security. These utterances and his not-so-pleasant human rights record have earned him petitions upon petitions at the International Criminal Court (ICC), making him perhaps the most popular Nigerian individual subject of petitions at The Hague.
Recently, the Islamic Movement in Nigeria (IMN) or ‘Shi’ites’ asked the ICC to expedite action in the investigation and prosecution of El-Rufai for an alleged act of genocide and crimes against humanity targeted at exterminating members of the movement.
For El-Rufai, it could just be that the chickens have come home to roost.