Recent chain of events has led to the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) severing its ties with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). This unprecedented move, announced in September 2023, has sent shockwaves through the region and raised critical questions about West African security and geopolitical dynamics. On January 28, 2024, member countries of AES announced via a joint statement that they were withdrawing from ECOWAS.
The AES emerged as a collective response from three junta-led nations: Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso. These countries, already suspended from ECOWAS, decided to chart their course. Their joint statement cited ECOWAS’s perceived lack of support and “inhumane” coup-related sanctions as the catalyst for their departure. Instead of aiding them in combating security threats, ECOWAS allegedly imposed punitive measures, pushing the trio to take matters into their own hands.
ECOWAS, established in 1975, aims to foster cooperation, integration, and economic stability among its 15 member states. Over the years, it has evolved into the region’s premier political authority, addressing challenges spanning politics, economy, and security.
While ECOWAS remains vital for West Africa’s stability, following recent happenings, citizens seem to be discontented. Many perceive the bloc as failing to represent their interests adequately. The disconnect between ECOWAS’s leadership and the people has widened. Citizens have questioned why they don’t reap the benefits of their countries’ wealth, leading to growing disillusionment with the organisation.
Compounding these challenges is the collaboration of external actors, notably France and Russia, whose strategic interests intersect with the Sahel’s geopolitical landscape. France’s historical ties to its former colonies and economic interests in the region have shaped its interventions, sometimes to the detriment of local governance and stability. Similarly, Russia’s expansionist ambitions and support for rogue regimes further complicate efforts to address the Sahel’s security dilemma.
Indeed, the AES’s departure poses multiple implications, including inspiration for further coups. The AES’s bold move might encourage other nations to follow suit. Military coups, once rare, could become more frequent if countries perceive ECOWAS as ineffective or unresponsive. The AES’s defiance sets a precedent, and other disgruntled states may seek alternative alliances².
Also, there are ramifications for global geopolitics. Major powers like Russia and China closely monitor West Africa. The AES’s exit provides an opportunity for these global players to capitalise on the situation. They could forge new alliances, altering the geopolitical landscape. ECOWAS’s waning influence might create openings for external actors to assert themselves.
The ECOWAS treaty stipulates that a member state wishing to withdraw must provide a one-year written notice. At the end of this period, the state ceases to be part of the community.
As the dust settles, ECOWAS faces critical choices. It must reevaluate its approach, reconnect with its citizens, and address their grievances. The AES, on the other hand, must prove its mettle by tackling Sahel’s security challenges effectively. The region watches closely, hoping for stability and cooperation in a time of uncertainty.
